Well, it was painful, but the L94 Outcast’s Secret finally dropped for me in campaign mode.
I had to defeat her something of the order of 60 times, and picked up a large number of the L90 Outcast’s Hood (11 of them, by my reckoning).
I find myself wondering if the drop rate of 5.25% for the Outcast’s Secret can be right, as the chance of my needing to wait that long would be (according to the maths) only about 4%, but I guess I just got unlucky
As if to add a final gotcha to it all, the Outcast’s Secret I got is below the average value for the item in each of its stats except for aether retaliation (woohoo!)…Grim Dawn’s RNG is sentient, but evil.
I think the 5.25% rate is wrong too. In the old game it took me about 75 runs for the 1st drop. Now, I’m up to 35 and nothing yet. Mathematically, the chance of the helm not dropping in 60 runs is 0.9475^60, which is about 4%. At 75 runs, it’s about 1.7%. I’d say we’re either very unlucky (a lot of us), or the 5.25% rate is highly exaggerated.
Well I’m past 200 runs by now and still nothing. It’s definitely not 5.25% I don’t think it’s even 2%…I wonder if it has anything to do with me not doing her quest in elite difficulty. The moment she drops the helm I’m friending her in elite.
Devs confirmed there was an issue with high level MI drops. Was this testing done recently? (Otherwise the issue was known, and hopefully already fixed)
I believe this was fixed in 1.0.3.0, there was no table for lvl 92+ earlier.
I’ve double checked the data and the probabilities are correct, well at least it looks like it. She has 15% chance to equip head item, then in the table for lvl 92+ there are only 2 items: epic (weight 650) and legendary (weight 350). There aren’t any other variables that can change weight, except for bellSlope which I don’t account for at all (that’s a bug in general), but in this case it alters weights equally, multiplicating them by 100 if I understand the logic correctly, so the relative % chance is still the same.
Idk, maybe it’s just bad luck or small sample size, but I don’t think the probability is incorrect unless there’s a global issue with seed generation in the game.
I mean, what if I tell you that I’ve got Covenant of the Three BP from Sentinel on my second encounter with him? And according to db the drop chance is 1.19% (I believe it might be a tad lower if I account for bellSlope). Does this mean that probability is wrong or I was extremely lucky? I’d say it’s the second.
I don’t know why I continue, but seems I just can’t stop. Today’s update: over 150 kills total, 24 blue hoods, and no purple hoods. 15% seems correct, but all of them are blue.
I also got that blue print very soon, my 2nd try after AoM released.
For this hood, as you said she has 15% chance to wear, so I think the real drop rate is 15% x 5.25% ~0.76%, worse than Decree of Aldritch or Sharzul Worldeater.
Ok, I’ve looked into scripts and I think I know why she doesn’t drop it for some of you, it might be a bug in the game unless it’s by design(?).
Anasteria spawns in the dungeon if you haven’t reached any status with with the Outcast. This version doesn’t drop the legendary version of hood at all. Anasteria, Harbinger of the North spawns if you’ve reached Hated status with the Outcast. This version doesn’t drop the legendary either. Anasteria, Wrath of the Aether spawns if you’ve reached Nemesis status with the Outcast. This version can drop the legendary. And drop chances listed in grimtools are correct.
I knew that some monsters are tied to char level, some to difficulty, but apparently some are tied to faction status (well, other than Nemesis). I should probably add a tag or something in monsterdb, but detecting this shit won’t be easy, cause it’s scripted
So the sad story continues. I ran out of components for spiritbane ointments long ago but I’m not stopping, it just takes longer. Have just killed Anasteria for the 300th time, on ultimate, and I’m counting only the kills after reaching Nemesis. I have 54 blue hoods in my collection and not a single purple. Math says I should expect to have about 15 legendary Outcast sectrets. I don’t think it is bad luck or RNG hates me, I think something is wrong here. I’m gonna post it in the bug section.
Chiming back to also say that I’m passed 300 runs and no helm. I want to clarify that yes this is her being nemesis status the entire time, these runs have strated with version 1.0.4.0 and been going through 1.0.4.1.
It’s so frustrating because I know when she spawns with the helm…she does so much more damage too but nope it’s always the blue hood, every single time. If this is bad luck, it is some serious bad luck.
