I finally got 1, needed it for a build of Rekt’s. I had about 100 or so runs over the last few weeks, plenty of gloves and helms. I got it in Morgoneth’s Folly in the area to the west, reliquary, before you get to Morgoneth himself. Strange I had better luck with Morgoneth’s rings, 5, not so good on the Magi rings.
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This makes it even less probable, 0.12% if we assume 6.5% droprate 
Forgot to mention I also got 2 of Morg’s weapons in that time, the Black Heart seems to be as painful to farm as the Magi rings.
GT is not by me… given that GT does list some items and drop chances, I assume the ones not listed fall below a certain threshold GT uses to not end up with a list 100s of items long
Maybe lucky people should be making more post to make drop rate of certain items seem higher 
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At 6.5% not getting Black Heart in 100 runs should be around as probable as getting one 2.5 times in a row and there are some players with weird drops like that sometimes 
When I was running Ancient Grove for purple Gargabol’s pistols, I once got 5 blue ones in back-to-back runs. GT says it has 7.5% chance to drop, so wouldn’t that mean getting 5 of them in a row is ~0.00024%?
I’d say the chance was higher because you were doing multiple runs, right? Do you remember how many runs you did?
The questions is really: what’s the chance of 5 Blue pistols in a row in N runs.
That’s probably hard to calculate though depending on N but maybe there’s some calculator for that.
The more runs you do, the closer the chance of that gets to 100%.
chance to get x number of things in N runs, if the probability of x per run is p can be calculated as (N-x+1) * p^x * (1-p)^(N-x)
it is a classical problem in combinatorics, what the probablity that you and your x-1 friends is standing next together in a que of N people if everyone is put there at random positions.
Edit: I spotted a mistake above 
Your formula is wrong for Grim Dawn imo. What are you counting is that there are precisely X consequite drops and the rest are not drops. But why the rest cannot be drops?
I meant of course sequence of runs in which there are X consequite drops. That’s all
Not sequence where X are drops consequuite drops and the rest are not drops.
It’s far more difficult than that.
Then it is just (N-x+1) * p^x
But then you might wanna modify it so that there is EXACTLTY x consecutive drops
Still no because you’re counting the same sequences multiple time here.
Let me show you on example
110000011 <- 2 consequuite drops
you’re counting it multiple times
this is 1 event yet you’re couonting it multiple times
I’m telling you it’s not that easy, there’s no simple formula for that
I guess you have to further specify what you really is after
What is the chance that in N runs you’ll have X consecutive drops but thay I mean
exactly or at least?
What is the chance that in X runs I did, I dropped Black Heart 5 times in a row.
It’s a super simple question. You’re answering different questions or incorrectly.
exactly 5 times in a row, or at least 5?
At least. The reverse of that would be that there are only 4 or fewer sequences.
And I really encourage you not be so quick with combinatorial interpretations because I’m telling you it doesn’t have a simple formula
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I just did not understand exactly what you was asking for. Why is there not a formula for it?
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I mean there’s probably some complicated formula with sums and stuff.
But I don’t think there’s a simple one resembling the one you wrote.
I can try searching for it because it’s a pretty general problem.