Shitty and bs drop rate

[Maska322]

Not sure if you know that but even with 99% drop chance you may not get a desired item. Same how with 0,5% drop chance you can get an item. Good popcorn btw

[joshua_ortiz]

Check the official discord. To this day, i still havent gotten it to drop.

[powbam]

I gotta newish character I’m pushing right now. I’ll get him to Kilrian here at some point and we’ll see. I feel reasonably sure I can pull one in no time.

[joshua_ortiz]

a snippet of my posts from the official discord.

[malawiglenn]

I got 3 Kilirian souls yesterday PogChamp

[Ceno]

Did one run to test, because you never know. Maybe things aren’t hooked up correctly.

Free Moosilauke kill, too!

Make sure your loot filter is showing components!

[toapeiron]

Lying is not a good way to help devs find bugs in the drop rates.

[fordprefect]

LoL, it almost same in life too. Yes there are probabilities but no one is laplace’s devil so we can not make the perfect calculation or predictions so we call it luck. Apply same principle to here aswell. You might know the rate you can do the math but every session resets all of that so in the end you are lucky or unlucky. It’s the matter of playing time and eventually you’ll get everything. Some item that droped too easily for you but useless in your builds might just be someone elses hard to get item.

[Weyu]

AFAIK stuff that drops from monsters (i.e. not from a loot orb) only drops once, even with instanced loot.
So even if there were 3 of you, the odds of the drop doesn’t increase.
What is possible is that someone else is getting the drop instead of you.

(Not 100% sure on this since I don’t play MP much.)

[LightningYu]

stupid response. The fact that a Crate Employee responded in such a way just shows there lack of empathy to player concerns/issues.

What does it have to do with “lack of empathy” if a Developer have to deal with idiocy. I mean seriously, i myself couldn’t show any kind of empathy about People who think that the Earth is Flat, while it’s a proven Fact that the earth is a globe…

The OP clearly doesn’t understand Math and than complain about it(and not even in a constructive manner).

Either way, a “math is hard” comment shows how much a company cares.

No it shows that the Company cares, because Big Z could’ve kept silent and only close the thread. Companys who doesn’t care simply don’t deal with it.

I’d rather argue Comments like this shows that Devs aren’t slaves and punching bags for salty consumers who expect that this “Customer is King” bs too much, and than trash them or throw out bs nonsense.

I’d argue it’s rather your lack of empathy to understand that Devs are Humans too…

This either shows that the math is flawed (meaning that math is actually hard for crate designers like Zantai) or the overall drop rate is misrepresented.

I’d rather argue you are the Problem and you should educate yourself. Rolling a dice with a probability of 1 out 6 to get the number which you want doesn’t mean that each 6th dice you roll is a guaranteed number you want to have. The same goes for RNG in Video Games. Only because you have a drop chance of 25% it doesn’t mean that each 4th drop is said item. Theoretically you could do 100 or 1000 runs and miss the 25% Thats how RNG simply works. So no it’s your math which is flawed and you were unlucky with your runs… but no reason to blame it on the devs.

IMO the droprates for Krieg Set are just fine. It’s not that tedious to get. But that’s obviously subjective.

I’d rather argue it’s a mentality thing. I remember my Days of Farming Kriegs and i was frustrated as well, meanwhile especially after looking back i’d argue it was quite rather easy and fast to grind for a full leggy set. The difference between other Leggy Gear and MI’s is however that you know you get a specific gear of a specific enemy, which hits you harder if you miss it and don’t get it, meanwhile non-mis which can drop basically everywhere there isn’t a real expectation behind it.So if i do such farm-runs i don’t expect something specific but are rather happy if i get atleast a leggy no matter what it is.

[tqFan]

Theoretically you could do 100 or 1000 runs and miss the 25% Thats how RNG simply works.

You got carried away with these numbers. Just a bit.

100 runs - you would need 1000 x Earth population playing Grim Dawn to find 1 such an unlucky player on average
1000 runs - you need 10^45 observable universes and every atom in each of them playing Grim Dawn to find one with suck a bad luck

But maybe the following probability is not that low:

• there’s player
• for which there’s an item/component with pretty high drop chance
• which (s)he’s trying to farm without success
• and also makes a forum thread about it

@Maska322 Please don’t ruin the party

[Maska322]

Just GDStash it

[SkeletorOne]

I’d rather argue it’s a mentality thing.

Yes, I agree. That’s why I said this is obviously subjective. In that sense Crate just can’t please everyone because there will be someone complaining about drop chances, always.

The difference between other Leggy Gear and MI’s is however that you know you get a specific gear of a specific enemy, which hits you harder if you miss it and don’t get it

Yes, I know that feeling. I target farmed Shuroth and Sethris rings recently. Did exactly 120 dungeon runs (just farmed the Magis, skipped Morgoneth), didn’t get Shuroth nor Sethris. Of course I was a bit frustrated about that. Mostly because Skeleton Keys are an investment, though. But that’s part of the game. I wouldn’t play an actual ARPG if the premise is that I get everything handed to me rather quickly.

[Ceno]

But maybe the following probability is not that low:

• there’s player
• for which there’s an item/component with pretty high drop chance
• which (s)he’s trying to farm without success
• and also makes a forum thread about it

∀ P ∈ Players: Desired_Item(P) is False.

[Ymiraku]

never had much of an issue farming for targeted sets. what annoys me more is how wide the gap is in gear rolls. But to be fair alkamos purple rings could have their drop rate raised a bit. As for farming for Kilirian shattered soul 50x and not getting one… well you might be even unluckier than I, either that or its a gross exagguration. Those things drop for me after just a few runs.

[ya1]

100 runs - you would need 1000 x Earth population playing Grim Dawn to find 1 such an unlucky player on average
1000 runs - you need 10^45 observable universes and every atom in each of them playing Grim Dawn to find one with suck a bad luck

Good stuff. But is that for real?

Btw what’s the chance of not dropping Kyrian component in 50 runs?

[malawiglenn]

if its 25% chance to drop per i.e. 75% to no drop, so its (0,75)^50 = 5,7 * 10^-7 i.e. 0,6 per million chance

[medea_fleecestealer]

Zantai’s right, math is hard.

[tqFan]

Good stuff. But is that for real?

For real. The probability of not dropping Kilrian’s Shattered Soul 1000 times is about
0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001.15%
(125 zeros including the ones in ‘%’)

0.75^1000 - Wolfram|Alpha

btw I assumed number of atoms in the observable universe to be 10^80

[Shadowpast]

I am going to lean on the side of the notion that it was likely frustration that led to this. Frustration after how many runs though I don’t know. I mean even if you posted a discord conversation showing “30” runs with no drop doesn’t mean that the numbers posted there aren’t anymore exaggerated.

After Z dropped the component patch, it took me 6 runs to drop the first one. After 4 I already thought something was wonky. After it did drop, I got 5 more in a row.

We all can probability just fine with the interwebs but it still gets checked an instance at a time no matter what’s “possible”.

If this drop was bugged and there are still a good portion of people not gdstashing farming for it, then it would have been reported a long time ago. It has not.

I understand the vitriol on both sides of the coin but the suggestion to use a mod to achieve a result is not a good suggestion to people who want to play the game as it was designed by Crate.