First, where did you get the info about 0,5% drop chance?
Second, calculations. Let’s agree with this 0,5% drop chance, just to have something to work with. The propability of getting the items always stays 0,5% no matter how many runs you’ve already done.
If we have 1% chance to get the item then to hit 100% we must make 100 runs, it’s as simple as that. So it would be 200 runs for 1 item, because our chance is only 0,5%. So it is 400 runs for 2 weapons. You said 12 runs per hour, 400/12=33,33 hours.
We need 400 runs in average to get these 2 wepons, that is approximately 33 hours.
Now let’s have some math on MI, shall we? Pants, for example. There are 150 prefixes and 216 suffixes for green, according to grimtools. We must divide each by 6 because there are 6 levels of each unique prefix/suffix (they only have higher numbers because of higher level). So, 25 unique prefixes and 36 unique suffixes.
These are only greens, we also have yellows! 135 prefixes, 467 suffixes, 8 levels, so 17 unique prefixes and 58 unique affixes
So the probability of having one exact combination that you need (for example Stonehide of Kings) is 1/[(25+17)*(36+58)]=0,000253. It is 0,0253%!
If we divide 0,5% into 0,0253% we get 19,74.
Conclusion: it is 20 times easier to get one of these weapons than real good green MI pants.
In terms of time, let’s say we are farming Solael, so we know exactly where to farm and so we are also able to make 12 runs per hour (which is totally not possible if we need pants from Nemesis).
(25+17)*(36+58)=3948, this is the average number of tries. 3948/12=329 hours.
I claim that 33 hours for 2 weapons is totally better than 329 hours for one single pants.
P.S.: about your calculations, why they are different. They are made for 99,99% chance for drop and for real world that means your are the least luckiest person on the planet and got the item only on your last mathematically possible try.
Mine are average which is totally better for real world.
