Is it normal for Maw of the Beast to have an extremely high drop rate in smugglers pass, around level 35? It just dropped 3 times in 5 minutes a little while ago in the pass. It seemed a little extreme, would need a considerably higher rate than other loot in the level/area to fall so fast consecutively.
It’s RNG, pure and simple. You can roll 3 6s in a row, doesn’t mean 6 is more likely.
Also RNG doesn’t keep track of what has already dropped, so just because one of an item has just dropped it doesn’t change the drop % of another one dropping
No, it doesn’t. Roll 6 dice and the probability of getting 1 on any one of the dice is 1/6. But the probability of rolling (1,1,1,1,1,1) on 6 dice is (1/6)^6, it doesn’t matter if you roll them all at once or 5 minutes apart. There are 30 or so level 35 items, so if it is a fair toss the probability of rolling (Maw, Maw, Maw) is, or should be, extremely small. (1/30)^3 to be exact.
How many of those monsters use shields? Don’t forget WYSIWYG.
That still doesn’t change the drop rate. Jaknet is correct.
What you are describing is the probability of getting the same roll consecutively. Different concept.
Each time you roll a 1D6, you always have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a one. This is independent of previous rolls.
Which is exactly what I said, in agreement with what jacknet said. But you are incorrect, drop rate and the probability of getting a particular item are exactly the same thing. Drop rate of 50% == probability of 1/2.
Only question is, is it a fair toss? Having witnessed an event with a probability of 1/27000 (in a fair toss) the answer is probably no, its not a fair toss. The rates are not the same for all the level 35 epics, or perhaps depends on what is dropping it. The point of the thread is that the rate of Maws, the probability of getting a Maw, seems to be a tad high.
What is the point of having uneven drop rates? If they were even, you would need to to farm 30 level 35 epics to have a (1/30)^30 chance of getting all of them in exactly 30 drops. Having some a little more rare than others is fine, but if you bias it too much, you push some possibilities to “practically never”, and others to “almost always”.
Because probabilities multiply, and probabilities are fractions, and considering that you have first a probability to get an epic, and then a probability to get a certain epic P=P1*P2, it doesn’t take very much bias to cause a situation in which some epics will simply almost never drop. Then it is no wonder some people play for 1000’s of hours and never complete a set, or that I have 6 swampleggings and 5 stonestomper grieves and 4 Bloodhound grieves and still no miasma hood. How many times through is a reasonable number in order to have a reasonable chance of getting a particular item?
IHNIWYAS. Abbreviated acronyms are only useful when everyone is in the know, and everyone usually isn’t. Are you saying the trolls only drop Maws because they carry Maws? Do they have no chance of dropping anything else?
You’re conflating independent events and compound events. Item drops are always independent events. When you see an item drop, that’s one event. the next time an item drops, that is a separate event that is in no way influenced by previous (or future) events. If you know that Monster A drops Item X 10% of the time, you are not guaranteed to get it after 10 kills. You have a 10% chance each time. And on the 11th kill, it’s 10% again. You can’t stack these into a single compound event because that’s not how the game’s drop rates are written. Doing so is a failure to understand the basics of probability & statistics.
WYSIWYG is a very common acronym. Highlight > right click > search google for… is a handy tool for finding things you don’t know. Try it out (while you still can).
I think you are failing to see the equivalence of three consecutive independent events and three simultaneous independent events. You state again what I have already stated, the probability of the outcome in your example is 1/10 for each independent roll.
This is (the number of ways an outcome can occur)/(number of possible outcomes).
It is 1/10 for any ONE event, but probability for that same outcome in 3 events is (consecutive, or simultaneous independent events) is (1/10)^3.
This is basic probability and statistics, and it is fact the moment it is written that an item has a %chance to drop. Each roll increases the number of possible outcomes. The number of combinations(possible outcomes) on 3 10 sided dice is 10^3, but there is just one combination where 1 appears on all three dice, giving a probability of (1/10)^3 of getting a 1 on all three dice.
This is exactly the situation of getting Maws on three consecutive rolls.
On a different note, you say you are not guaranteed a 1 on 10 rolls. This is correct, and I didn’t say that it was. However, as you roll more dice, the probability of getting 1 on AT LEAST one of the dice does increase. Let your intuition guide you here. Roll a 10 sided die 100 times and the odds are high that you will get at least one 1, even higher for 1000 rolls, and it approaches certainty that you will get at least one 1 as the number of rolls approaches infinity (long before that actually, it becomes “practically certain”).
There are many things on which I am wrong Yawgmoth, and i am quick to admit when i am wrong. But this is not one of those instances. So let it be my turn to say that you don’t know what you are talking about here. Google probability, while you still can, and you will see that what I have told you is correct.
Edit: You said “If you know that Monster A drops Item X 10% of the time…”
Maybe we aren’t talking about the same thing exactly. This is why i asked, are MAWs the only epics that these trolls can drop? In that case I didn’t roll the dice 3 times, I rolled it about 50 times. For non-exhalted containers that can sometimes drop an epic and can be any number of epics its
P(of getting an epic)*P(of particular epic)
If troll can drop other epics then this is so also. But if he just has a flat 10% rate of dropping a maw, and no other epics, it is just P(of getting a maw) = 1/10 and killing 50 trolls is more like the second situation of the probability approaching certainty of getting a Maw the more times you roll the dice.
Either way the rate is rather high to see three of them in a matter of minutes.
Let’s try to put this very simply and stop with the overly involved and pedantic numbers to the nth degree. You attack a mob and it has a % chance of dropping item x.
If the mob carries any items then you have a % chance of the carried items to drop and each mob individually can carry a range of different equipment…also sorted by RNG
Each and every mob you attack is a totally isolated incidence and has NO effect on the % chance of any other mob dropping…anything else you think you see is the real world RNG… and you cannot include real world RNG with programmed RNG and blame it all on the game
Conformational bias… you are fixated on Maws so when one drops you notice it more then when other drops.
Different people get different rares that “seem” to drop more for them, or are more noticed on the Conformational bias that they notice them because they are looking out for them … Mine are molten walkers, I could open a warehouse for them if I kept them all.
I guess to be blunt…Please stop fixating all your energy on these perceived flaws and simply enjoy the game 
Edit… Final thought. We are dealing with as pure RNG as you can get in programming, so it’s factual that every possible occurrence regardless of how small a % chance STILL has a chance of happening… so it’s perfectly possible (regardless of how small the % chance is) to roll 100 x 6’s one after the other in a row and it not be cheating or messed up RNG.
With RNG ANY combination of drops that is possible CAN and probably WILL drop at some point…it’s not the programming being fucked, what you are seeing is real life and chance in action
Yes it does… in a not direct way… If an epic+ item dropped in session, game will roll again for once if that item is rolled (Some old guy wrote in the forums). Yes it does not mean game increases drop chance but it means game gives a second chance for all non-dropped items per session which means more chance in a indirect way.
Game drop mechanics need rework. I am telling this thousand times; Tons of players exist who havent even completed 10 sets after 1000 hours of playing.
I am not fixating on the flaws, I am merely noting what i see. WYSIWYG. What i saw was three of an epic item drop in minutes. I have a hard time believing that this is an intended and desired outcome. I do not know the actual reason for this. It could well be just a fortuitous and profitable occurrence, but it could also be that someone meant to type 0.5% and they accidentally typed 5% or something to that effect. I’m not here to make that determination, only to state what I saw. What I saw seemed unlikely. I see lots of the same loot over several runs, but that’s the first time seeing three of the same epic (very rare) loot in 5 minutes. If I were making a game, i would want to know such things, and I would want to review it to make sure everything was working as intended, and i believe that is the intent of this forum.
As for the probability. We are asking different questions. You are asking “of all the loot that drops what is the chance that one of those pieces will be a Maw”. What I am asking is “when an epic drops, what is the probability that it will be a Maw”. I saw three events, three epics dropping. If the trolls only drop Maws, then the answer is “when trolls drop an epic, the probability is 1 that it will be a Maw, or 100% of the time an when an epic is dropped.” This is not fundamentally different from the question you are insisting I ask, it is just a different decomposition of the same mechanic. The drop rate to which you are referring is P(of dropping an epic)*P(of a particular epic) *100%. Again, exactly same thing, different decomposition.
You keep repeating that it does not track previous drops, that it’s independent so you can’t treat probabilities this way, previous has no effect on the later. I am telling you, with certainty, that this(what i have explained) is how you treat probabilities of multiple, identical, independent events. Believing differently wont make different so. The game does not have to track them, it is a inherent property of a repeated event having multiple possible outcomes. Google dice and probability and argue with the mathematicians.
Between 0.14% and 4%, depending on the source.
Regrettably I’m on my phone and can’t get you a link, but if you search the Utilities and Resources subforum for GDLoot you can get a resource that lists all the droprates in the game.
Edit: about drop-tracking: the game only tracks one of the following, not both: WYSIWYG loot, and loot from loot orbs/chests. I forget which is tracked and which isn’t, hopefully someone knows.
Edit 2: GDLoot link: https://github.com/ssauvageau-/GDLoot/blob/master/mastertables_output.txt
what part of RNG is hard for you to understand ?
What I saw seemed unlikely.
agreed on it being unlikely, but why is something unlikely actually happening a problem for you ?
From an RNG perspective, something unlikely is not impossible, or you no longer have a true RNG. If you had a die that cannot roll a 6 three times in a row, it would not be a fair and truly random die.
If I were making a game, i would want to know such things
you made them aware, so you can move on now.
Personally, I would not want to know such things. I’d test my RNG and everything someone then claims about it being ‘strange’ I’d dismiss as that person either not knowing what he is talking about or just having run into one of the rare but possible cases. Saves me a ton of trouble chasing after false complaints.
As always Mamba, the only thing that keeps me coming back are the graciously friendly and yet unnecessary comments. Some come in solely to insult under the guise of making a counterpoint while stuffing words in others mouths and dismissing the conversation. Its a common and unfortunate pattern.
It is not a complaint, it is an observation. I am not the first who has observed that the drop rates seem a little skewed toward some things never dropping and others dropping very frequently. The assumption about possibility and likely hood are patently false in a general sense. Ill ask again, how long is reasonable to have a reasonable expectation of getting a particular item, and also, how short of a time frame is reasonable to not expect to see the same item? There is ample anecdote and observation to infer that the question has not been adequately addressed. But you know all and you know better so no need to actually listen.
…but you would get suspicious of the die if it rolls 6 three times in a row more often than it rolls 5 three times in a row over a long enough period:p
My experience is there is definitely something up with the RNG. There seem to be some bias towards certain items either based on the class being played and/or items equipped.
For example: In my last 1 hour played I’ve had 2 Sparkbolt Arbalasts drop - I can’t remember even ever seeing one of those drop, but with this lightning trickster 2 in an hour? In the same session two Alvarick’s Rebukes and three Templar’s Leg Armors. All lightning based items. Only other epic that dropped in the session was a Chthonian Thread Sash (and I have one equipped)?
RNG? Not sure, but 3 duplicate items in 7? My view is that the RNG needs a rework
I have a deja vu. The nth thread about the drop system being no fun and seemingly broken, always by different players who are usually pretty new.
And then the same players rushing in to defend it, no matter the arguments, and getting defensive about it.
Now, even if the system works as intended, for most players it just isn’t fun. Seeing the same srops repeatetly and not being able to complete sets or even find all relic blueprints in a couple of hundres of hours is frustrating. I’m not saying you should be given whichever items you desire, as there would be no fun in that. But: there are a lot of players coming here to describe their experience, and a vocal minority defending it.
Don’t get me wrong, i love gd as much as the next, and i backed it on ks as well, but to me it seems like some people are overly invested, and defend it no matter what. Many people are describing how they think the drop system is extremely odd, and yet no one seems to listen.
Maybe, just maybe, someone could finally take the feedback seriously.
The devs have looked at this and so far nothings changed. So guess there’s no problem. 
Unless you and/or wwtchhntr want to do some real analysis on the drop tables and the end results and provide that detailed analysis to the devs. I see nothing changing, other than the devs usual tweaking things as they see fit.
Definitely not the first neither will be last. Some people along me shouted in the forums about it. Only feasible solution i could come is rng tracking everything that is dropped and stored in ALL CHARACTER’S STASHES and per season loot and then tweak loot tables accordingly. To give an example, lets assume there 5 possible different item outcomes from chest. And we have already one of possible outcomes in our stash ( or it has dropped in this session whatever). At first, chance of one of each was %20, but with my method; the one’s chance that has already dropped would be around %20 - x, the others would be %20 + x/4. (MI stuff would be tweaked if well thought)
Here you go, the problem solved. You can complete sets now.