It comes:
3hrs+ lawl, but yeah, things are a mess and the [REDACTED] driving this think they can force people to use their LLM’s as a replacement for PCs or repurpose the LLM servers into mainframe-terminal set ups and make us all rent our access to computing. And in the process, all the awesome companies that built themselves on providing useful kit for PC’s are getting screwed over and driven in the ground, because few at the moment can afford to build a PC or do upgrades.
All because The Line Must Go Up. No matter that LLM’s are dumber than a bag of rocks and only useful for pattern recognition jobs when ruthlessly trained only in a narrow area. Because fundamentally they are built around making pretty sentences, not true sentences. In fact it’s become very obvious to me that they can not do context, but that’s a grumble for another day.
Anyhow, I doubt anyone’s actually going to rent LLM’s in the end, because they’re fundamentally flawed and then there’s the fact they will not obey ownership and restrictions on data, which is a massive legal risk in terms of personal data etc. While the hardware itself is optimised for LLM work, not standard compute, it can be done, but it’s far less efficient to use GPU hardware for CPU work sets. Perhaps they think hoarding all the RAM will work, but Chinese companies are now making DDR5+ and Flash.
So combining it all together, I significantly doubt the data centres can be re-tasked and that PC’s will die, but there’s a sting in the tail here.
As thanks to reading https://www.wheresyoured.at/ plus other analysis it’s become very, very obvious the LLM companies and Nvidia et al are digging a massive hole of debt and stock overvaluation. The sort of hole that we’ve seen in the past with other bubbles, like the fibre one. Except this time there’s far more money caught up and the infrastructure being built has no real value it seems we’re being driven into a 1920’s style recession. The sort of bubble burst that devours the companies whole that are caught up in it or started it.
And I suspect Nvidia is going to collapse spectacularly, because right now they are loaning out their own money to allow datacentre builders to buy their GPUs. And circular funding bs like this tend to blow up nuclear style in the face of companies that try it. Especially more so when 10’s of millions are caught up And while AMD isn’t as stupid (yet) they’re very exposed to the bubble.
So I will not be surprise if either company collapses, dies and is carved up for parts and it’s CEO’s looking at prison time for fraud etc. That I will celebrate with a fine whisky, provide the rule of law is still in effect.
But right now, we’re looking at the potential death of long storied PC parts companies and the looses of all the jobs caught up and lives fucked up, all so rich [REDACTED] can get more rich, or so they think. And that disgusts me greatly, especially in context of how useless LLM’s are and remain despite swallowing the whole internet and all the books.
And meanwhile, those of us into PC gaming are left wondering wtf we’re going to do or trying to find ways to buy the stuff we need when parts fail or need replacing or face loosing access to using a gaming PC due to being priced out of it. Never mind the whole “potential Great Depression repeat looming” pile-o-dread, because who needs horror when you have real life right?
So fingers crossed we all get through this looming horror show and PC’s stay around, because terminal-client mode sucks and is a massive security and privacy nightmare on top.
Though I think Intel’s going to survive and then boom, because they’re still making consumer GPU’s and will likely keep with the market because their LLM servers are being snubbed and with the other 2 heavily exposed and distracted they have an opening. If they’re smart enough to take it, alas Teh Shareholder Theory of Stupidity leads company into the dumbest of stupidity chasing “value” so who knows?
Either way it’ll be if hilarious if Intel rises again XD
