Milton's Casque - does it even exist?

I have played the game for years now, since the alpha, and this helmet just never ever dropped for me… Of course I never farmed him for it, but compared to others like Salazar’s Blade or Ikrix’s Scale or Gollus’ Ring, which dropped plenty of times whenever I killed these bosses just once with every character on every difficulty, Milton just never dropped his helmet. Is it more rare for some reason?

Also, was there some history behind Milton that I am unaware of? The text for the helmet says he killed Taken… which is strange considering he died simply fighting Aetherial zombies. Maybe he was the one who captured you for Bourbon?

I find it about as often as Salazar’s blade, which at least for me is somewhat infrequent. It definitely exists, but I’ve never found a good one

Found one a moment ago, when I started act1 in ultimate.

I don’t ever remember seeing it before I started playing Ashes but one dropped for a new character I started on Veteran about a week ago. Even on Normal it’s a pretty awesome starter item. I plan to drop it in the transfer stash for any new characters that would benefit from it going forward.

I just got one from crucible, decent rolls, but I guess its primarily usage is crafting

I have now started a new Blademaster character and I want this thing for the build due to the bonus to Blitz. I am not kidding, I leveled up while doing runs of Milton, he is at least close to the riftgate so it takes no time at all, but this thing refuses to drop.

0_0 item filter messing with you perhaps? IRC, this helm drop often.

I am not kidding, I went up 2 levels just by killing Milton (and everything between him and the riftgate). Took that long, and was about to give up when the casque finally dropped. Of course, a version of it that is not good for my build, but what the heck, at least it exists. But I feel the 14.8% chance on Grimcalc is probably closer to like 5% in reality.

No, I was on level 13, I filtered to enable ALL items.

you were just unlucky, I get his helm “all the time”. You can not deduce the true dropchance by just referring to your own runs. The variance of number of dropped items during a sequence of runs is often very big. Check out my Drop chance videos (mostly related to Diablo II, but the math is general)

Yeah it can be frustrating. 15% is near 1/6… so quite roughly if you do 6 runs have a good chance to find one.

However if it doesn’t drop that doesn’t mean the next run ‘has to’ drop it. If you have already done 6 runs it is still on average 6 more to find it.

Just like a coin comes up heads 3 times that doesn’t mean it is guaranteed tails the next flip.

yeah if we approximate 15% to 1/6 we have 63% confidence of getting at least one if we do 6 runs. 86.6% if we do 12 runs and we are 95% confident to get at least one if we do 18 runs on him.

You can find this information in my videos too and what it means to say “average” under these circumstances.

Anyway, the formula for confidence in % for getting at least one item with drop chance 1:x doing t runs is 100*(1-e^(-t/x))

It is based on the probability of getting 0 items in t runs, that reads 100*e^(-t/x) %

so if you did say 20 runs, the probability of getting 0 is about 3.5% meaning that if a large number of players did 20 runs, 3.5% of them would get 0 Miltons helm. The interpretation of confidence is only valid in the limit “number or players goes to infinity”, the more players doing 20 runs the closer to the 3.5% getting 0 and 96.5% getting at least one, will be approached.

Personally, the drop rate for this badly needs to be buffed, as it took 10+ runs on the bastard to finally get it drop. Which in the same farming run I got Salazar’s blade to drop 3 times…

I think I have actually never gotten this helm after level ~10. I remember getting it only on my fresh characters, but never in elite nor ultimate.

And I got Soulrend to drop on the fourth time I ever killed Alkamos, drop rate for Soulrend must be nerfed!!! :stuck_out_tongue:

It is just anecdotes. If we can trust the drop rate in GrimTools, about 15% drop chance (14.3%) is very ok considering that Milton is easy to get to and is not very hard to kill.

Edit: I just did 8 runs of Milton on ultimate with lvl 91 char. Got it on the 5th try and got the second one on the 8th trial. Took me less than 10 minutes (most of the time was spent in load screen and buffing up in DC)

With 14.3% drop chance and 10 runs, you are still 24% from not getting it - meaning that if 1000 players do 10 Milton runs each, about 240 will not get it in those 10 runs. It’s all RNG dude

And Salazar’s blade is about same drop chance so in 10 runs getting 3 of them is 12% chance :stuck_out_tongue: