Morgoneth Black Heart - What is the drop rate?

I guess mamba hasn’t implemented it :thinking:

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Well, since he doesn’t have anything to do with GT it would kinda explain why he hasn’t implemented it. :wink:

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Thanks for correcting me, I meant Dammit of course.

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this is how you calculate the first one. Arrange the data from loot1chance to loot6chance in columns. Sum up the row. Devide each value in row by the sum and you get % drop.

Example:

Looking at it. Looks like it is 65/1000 from first file. And second file there seems to be only 1 item so 100%.

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15%, wouldn’t that seem a bit high :thinking:

After reading a lot of forum I figured this one eventually.
However there seem to be one more item (materials) down the line which I may have not shown properly.

  • this big table chestloot_challengeevent_d01u_toh.dbr
    (from which we get 65/1000)

  • has entry mt_gear_tombofheretic_torso.dbr:

    templateName,database/templates/lootmastertable.tpl,  
    Class,LootMasterTable,
    lootName1,records/items/loottables/misc/lt_tombofheretic_torso.dbr,
    lootWeight1,1000,
    lootWeight10,0,
    

    TRIMMED, ONLY ZEROS after

  • and this in turn has lt_tombofheretic_torso.dbr entry:

    templateName,database/templates/leveltable.tpl,
    Class,LevelTable,
    levels,1;92,
    records,records/items/loottables/misc/tdyn_randommaterials_01.dbr;records/items/loottables    /misc/tdyn_tombofheretic_torso.dbr,
    

- and as you can see the above has 2 entries
tdyn_randommaterials_01.dbr
tdyn_tombofheretic_torso.dbr

And here is the content of these 2 entries:

records/items/loottables/misc/tdyn_randommaterials_01.dbr

templateName,database/templates/lootitemtable_dynweighted_dynaffix.tpl,
Class,LootItemTable_DynWeight,
bellSlope,300.000000;200.000000;500.000000,
disableLevelLimits,1,
lootName1,records/items/crafting/materials/craft_ancientheart.dbr,
lootName2,records/items/crafting/materials/craft_bloodchthon.dbr,
lootName3,records/items/crafting/materials/craft_taintedbrain.dbr,
lootName4,records/items/crafting/materials/craft_manticore.dbr,
lootWeight1,100,
lootWeight2,100,
lootWeight3,100,
lootWeight4,70,
lootWeight51,0,
lootWeight52,0,
lootWeight53,0,
lootWeight54,0,
lootWeight55,0,
lootWeight56,0,
lootWeight57,0,
lootWeight58,0,
lootWeight59,0,
lootWeight60,0,
lootWeight61,0,
lootWeight62,0,
lootWeight63,0,
lootWeight64,0,
lootWeight65,0,
lootWeight66,0,
lootWeight67,0,
lootWeight68,0,
lootWeight69,0,
maxItemLevelEquation,200,
minItemLevelEquation,1,
noPrefixNoSuffix,100,
targetLevelEquation,1,

records/items/loottables/misc/tdyn_tombofheretic_torso.dbr

templateName,database/templates/lootitemtable_dynweighted_dynaffix.tpl,
Class,LootItemTable_DynWeight,
bellSlope,100.000000;100.000000;100.000000;80.000000;80.000000;80.000000;60.000000;60.000000;30.000000;30.000000;30.000000;10.000000;10.000000;10.000000;10.000000;10.000000,
bothPrefixSuffix,0,
brokenOnly,0,
lootName1,records/items/geartorso/d222_torso.dbr,
lootWeight1,1000,
maxItemLevelEquation,(parentLevel*1)+2,
minItemLevelEquation,(parentLevel)-18,
noPrefixNoSuffix,10000,
normalPrefixRareSuffix,0,
prefixOnly,0,
prefixTableLevelMax1,500,
prefixTableLevelMax2,500,
prefixTableLevelMax3,500,
prefixTableLevelMax4,500,
prefixTableLevelMax5,500,
prefixTableLevelMax6,500,
prefixTableLevelMin1,1,
prefixTableLevelMin2,1,
prefixTableLevelMin3,1,
prefixTableLevelMin4,1,
prefixTableLevelMin5,1,
prefixTableLevelMin6,1,
prefixTableWeight1,300,
prefixTableWeight2,100,
prefixTableWeight3,200,
prefixTableWeight4,1000,
prefixTableWeight5,150,
prefixTableWeight6,100,
rareBothPrefixSuffix,0,
rarePrefixNormalSuffix,0,
rarePrefixOnly,0,
rareSuffixOnly,0,
suffixOnly,0,
suffixTableLevelMax1,500,
suffixTableLevelMax2,500,
suffixTableLevelMax3,500,
suffixTableLevelMax4,500,
suffixTableLevelMin1,1,
suffixTableLevelMin2,1,
suffixTableLevelMin3,1,
suffixTableLevelMin4,1,
suffixTableWeight1,1000,
suffixTableWeight2,320,
suffixTableWeight3,150,
suffixTableWeight4,200,
targetLevelEquation,(parentLevel*1),

So how would you take into consideration this 2nd item which is some materials?

btw this is BellSlope explanation by Zantai: Bell Slope, MPOverrideDbr help to understand

How the heck have you got 15% from this :laughing:

This is my understanding of lt_tombofheretic_torso.dbr .
For character level >= 92 choose tdyn_tombofheretic_torso.dbr .

So for maxed out character it never branches to the random materials table.

Edit: level could also be for container, which should be based on area level.

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Not sure, 6.5% seems a tad too high.
Assuming OP did 70 runs I calculated to probability of not getting the chest with this probability to be only 0.9%
But if it was i.e. 3% instead of 6.5%, the probability rises greatly from 0.9% to almost 12% which is far more probable.

But your interpretation might by correct, I don’t have a different one at the moment.
Anyway, thanks for a good insight. These bellSlopes really scared me away from investigating this further :laughing:

I finally got 1, needed it for a build of Rekt’s. I had about 100 or so runs over the last few weeks, plenty of gloves and helms. I got it in Morgoneth’s Folly in the area to the west, reliquary, before you get to Morgoneth himself. Strange I had better luck with Morgoneth’s rings, 5, not so good on the Magi rings.

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This makes it even less probable, 0.12% if we assume 6.5% droprate :thinking:

Forgot to mention I also got 2 of Morg’s weapons in that time, the Black Heart seems to be as painful to farm as the Magi rings.

GT is not by me… given that GT does list some items and drop chances, I assume the ones not listed fall below a certain threshold GT uses to not end up with a list 100s of items long

Maybe lucky people should be making more post to make drop rate of certain items seem higher :rofl:

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At 6.5% not getting Black Heart in 100 runs should be around as probable as getting one 2.5 times in a row :thinking: and there are some players with weird drops like that sometimes :wink:

When I was running Ancient Grove for purple Gargabol’s pistols, I once got 5 blue ones in back-to-back runs. GT says it has 7.5% chance to drop, so wouldn’t that mean getting 5 of them in a row is ~0.00024%?

I’d say the chance was higher because you were doing multiple runs, right? Do you remember how many runs you did?
The questions is really: what’s the chance of 5 Blue pistols in a row in N runs.
That’s probably hard to calculate though depending on N but maybe there’s some calculator for that.
The more runs you do, the closer the chance of that gets to 100%.

@tqFan

chance to get x number of things in N runs, if the probability of x per run is p can be calculated as (N-x+1) * p^x * (1-p)^(N-x)

it is a classical problem in combinatorics, what the probablity that you and your x-1 friends is standing next together in a que of N people if everyone is put there at random positions.

Edit: I spotted a mistake above :slight_smile:

Your formula is wrong for Grim Dawn imo. What are you counting is that there are precisely X consequite drops and the rest are not drops. But why the rest cannot be drops?

I meant of course sequence of runs in which there are X consequite drops. That’s all
Not sequence where X are drops consequuite drops and the rest are not drops.

It’s far more difficult than that.

Then it is just (N-x+1) * p^x

But then you might wanna modify it so that there is EXACTLTY x consecutive drops

Still no because you’re counting the same sequences multiple time here.
Let me show you on example

110000011 <- 2 consequuite drops
you’re counting it multiple times

this is 1 event yet you’re couonting it multiple times
I’m telling you it’s not that easy, there’s no simple formula for that