RNG conspiracy thread #718

Grim Dawn Gameplay Discussion
21

Circles mostly, and at least one contradiction. b2) why would short runs compound the problem unless there was some persistence in the drops due to the area and seed? If I truly was getting a new seed each session, i should see something more like when i take a new character through the area…new/different drops. I should have the sense that it could just as likely be items abc as items def…but after several runs i KNOW it will be items abc, several of them. For each character I would start to get a pool of identical items, and then i would start a new one, and run that one several times untill i started seeing the repeats and another pool of identical items. Up to about level 35, until I had most of the items (that i wanted) from 14 to 35ish. But pressing on with my three mains, i see the same patterns emerging in the 35-50ish level content. Believe it or not, its a fact.

Yes you will, and I am sure you will be there to argue why I can’t possibly be right. All in good fun though, I hope. Truth is I have no idea, i just see a pattern that i can make item forecasts with. Everything else is a guess, a suggestion.

As for the “hundreds of drops”. I mean on a single character who has been grinding content at levels greater than 50 for a long time, who has had time to accumulate hundreds of legendary drops.

22

because the game remembers what dropped in one session and if that unique already dropped, it rerolls (if you still get a duplicate that second time, a duplicate drops) - or something like that.
That ‘memory’ is lost when you start a new session.

So not a contradiction, there is no persistence across sessions and restarting sessions frequently is still is affecting how many duplicates you will likely get, just as I said.

If I truly was getting a new seed each session, i should see something more like when i take a new character through the area…new/different drops. I should have the sense that it could just as likely be items abc as items def…but after several runs i KNOW it will be items abc, several of them.

Can’t help you there. You get a new seed and the seed has nothing to do with the char, that is a fact.

As far as I can tell this is not based on facts and just happening in your head, you probably remember the drops where your ‘prediction’ was right and ignore the ones where it was wrong (confirmation bias…).

Yes you will, and I am sure you will be there to argue why I can’t possibly be right. All in good fun though, I hope. Truth is I have no idea, i just see a pattern that i can make item forecasts with. Everything else is a guess, a suggestion.

All in good fun, I am just trying to educate on what the game actually does wrt seed and RNG and what the consequences of that are, so we no longer hear nonsense like the seed being dependent on the char.

If you have something that sounds like a likely issue, I will definitely be open minded, but for that you need a huge sample size, otherwise a good explanation for what you see already is your tiny sample… all I have seen so far is misconceptions and anecdotes (not just from you, from anyone who complained about the RNG).
I grant you that is will definitely be hard to prove there is an issue though :wink:

23

I think you, or they, have overlooked something. I imagine you have run the content straight through dozens of times with different characters. Your experience then leads you to a different perception of what is happening. You grind up level to level straight to 85, you see the content change in a progressive fashion that is level dependent. You start a new character, new loot, new progression. But you and I, we are not looking at the same thing. (I don’t mean to presume, maybe you have, but I know that is not how many typically approach the game, but then again, you wrote the item hack program no?) How do you know what I see when you have not looked at what I am looking at?

When you look at it as i am looking at it and tell me you do not see the same thing, then the openness of your mind will be relevant. Start a character, play up to level 35 or so, grind the content up to that point several times with the same character. Play as a player who really wants some particular item before proceeding. Up to Smugglers Pass. Sometimes straight to the Ruins, sometimes the Wardens lair, sometimes the Outskirts, sometimes the Hideout, but each level of content several times, same toon. Meander there for a few dozen hours, then come tell me what you see.

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I obviously do not know, but there are two things I can say regardless

  • the seed is not char dependent
  • whatever you are experiencing has nothing to do with the seed carrying over (which it does not)

Play as a player who really wants some particular item before proceeding. Up to Smugglers Pass. Sometimes straight to the Ruins, sometimes the Wardens lair, sometimes the Outskirts, sometimes the Hideout, but each level of content several times. Meander there for a few dozen hours, then come tell me what you see.

I never wait for a specific item to drop during those low levels :wink: I have played those levels over and over through both beta and since (played 6 chars in parallel through the content after release).

I can tell you that from farming in beta I got all epics that were available at that time. Sure, some more often than others, but they all dropped and I did pretty much all of the farming with one char.

Sure, some I got repeatedly, others just once, but that is to be expected. For one the drop rate is not the same for all items, for another, when you try to roll a 100 on a 100-sided ‘die’, you are bound to get some numbers repeatedly before you get that 100.

Trying to find a specific item will always be hard and you will almost always find duplicates of other items before it drops. That is just basic math / probability.

25

Absolutely, but when it rolls 58 more often than not you start to wonder. There are supposed to be 99 other equally likely options, but 58 becomes so common you’d be willing to bet on it. It would, it should, make anyone suspicious.

Basic probability suggests that it should just as often be easy to find a particular item. Just as often it should fall into your lap on the first go, but never should it get stuck in a predictable pattern of 58’s.

26

not all items actually have the same drop chance, some even never drop but need to be gotten from factions or blueprints. So depending on what you are looking for it can take a long time to get it.

If otoh you get one item every other or third drop every time (not just have it drop three times in one session), that would make me wonder too - but I expect that to be an exaggeration on your part…

27

Exaggeration, if only, and if only it were just one session. If it were I would not be here talking about it. I’m not unfamiliar with what we are discussing, i understand there is a possibility of getting duplicates. What I am talking about is something much more glaring and outside of random chance. You don’t have to believe me, but you aren’t going to convince me either, and i don’t need anyone to tell me what i see. You aren’t the one managing the RNG or anything right? You don’t work for crate, so why is it so important? If you want this conversation to ever end you must do one thing though, make it through one comment without insulting my intelligence, my integrity, or suggesting I am delusional. I have nothing to gain by this, presumably you do not either. If you want the last word by all means have it, but you will not take it at my expense.

28

The easiest way to prove your point, wwtchhntr, will be to catalogue all your next (at least) 100 future legendary drops, and your level and the level of your enemies when you dropped it. And you should not count the items that were equipped by the killed enemies, those have their own loot table. Just count the items dropped by the loot orbs.

29

I agree on “insulting” intelligence part. The way he/she always writes and adding “;)” this emoji in almost every post is proof of his big-ego. By adding this emoji, he tries to show how he is above you and cooler than you. Maybe correct term is “pseud, smart aleck”…

30

Complete nonsense. First of all, show me an example of where I was insulting in this thread, second of all the :wink: is not meant to be insulting either, show me one where it is used that way.

31

if that is what it would take, we would not be having this conversation now. I never insulted your intelligence, disagreeing with you and pointing out that some things you believe are plain wrong and explaining why is not insulting your intelligence, if anything it is appealing to it - otherwise why bother explaining…

That I do not believe that every third legendary drop you get is the same item in every session and across all sessions and consider this an exaggeration is common sense. Make a poll who believes that if you want, not many will.
To prove this, all you have to do is make a video of you next 20 legendary drops and post it. If you get one item 6 or more times, you have shown that you have a point.

The question then becomes why that is, which might very well have to do with you running the same small area repeatedly and one item having a high probability due to the mobs you encounter in it, which then would not really be an RNG problem so much as a consequence of your choices.

32

Abuse of using blink emoji is sign of inferior complexity. Emojis and their usages are reflections(or similar representation) of facial expressions. If somebody is blinking in every sentence he says, there is definitely wrong about that person :wink:

33

I think that is the spirit of it, no ill intended. apologies, i was tired and should not have posted. Its the “all in your head” comments, the you don’t understand this or that comments. Lots of little things we do in argument to try to minimize the other. There is no level of smart assery or arrogance in your comments that can’t often be found in mine as well, i take no offense directly to that. We have beaten this one to death though.:wink:

I will, i am going to document. Not video, if it must be hours and hours of video you are really saying there is no evidence you will accept. But ill show you what i am saying. I am just as interested in proving it to myself, to see whether it really is in my head or not. What is a fair test? Grind Ikon/Plains/Necropolis/. I would say 50 times but as strongly as I think the pattern is I think it would take much less. I think within 10 drops there will be evidence of a non-random anomaly.

34

I personally find some stuff are dropping quite frequently.

There is 3 pair of boots (Desecrator, Helion, Dreadnought) they are the only option at their level range (one option at 40 and two at 50 there is four for level 58). The fact that we get Elite Act 2-3 (Bandits, Revenants and then Vanguard) at those level make those boots drop like candy (they are relevant to the level you actually end up in an area where a lot of ennemy are wearing the kind of equipement).

Just the same with the Stormcaller at level 58 (StormCaller Effigy as the off-hand and the Stormcaller something as the weapon). Around those level you will be fightning the Groble at the start of Act 4 or the Bloodsworn end of Act 3. Both unit type with Weapon/Off Hand and not a lot of option outside of those in that level range.

We played a game as a team from Smuggler Pass to Fort Ikon we dropped 5 Stormcaller Effigy in one game session (3 for me 2 for my friend). This is part probability part lack of option for that specific level. If you need to roll an Epic Off-Hand between level 40 and 64 you have 1 option at 46 (Eldritch Backscrapper which is a SUPER common drop) and then 4 Option at level 58 (3 Empowered and Scorcher Archives). 3 out of those four are actual Books so only one option left once again (making Stormcaller Effigy a super common drop)

35

Interesting, because the ones you mention are some of the ones I am seeing in the 50-60 content. What i hear you saying in effect is that some items drop more frequently because certain enemies have a higher chance of wearing those items, but it is insisted that this is not the case, and because there are fewer items of that level available to drop. I figured item level was to prevent this homogenizing of the drops, and surely there is a spread right…surely the level 50 mob is not limited to dropping ONLY level 50 items, especially if there is such a small pool of them and considering you tend to pass through level ranges so quickly it’s possible to not see many or most.

Still does not explain the seeming character specific nature of some of my observations, but it stabs at least partly at a reason for others. Namely if the spread of items, say legendaries, is small at level 50, or it x enemies like to wear a particular item and that influences drop(though again, it is said this is not the case), then of course ill get 6 venom spine grieves playing three characters through that content. Combine the small pool with uneven drop rates, and boom, you get a sense that you are rolling the same items over and over.

36

so which one is it, feeling inferior or having a big ego ? Can’t really be both, so make up your mind.

Also, check how often I used it, it is not even every second post, let alone every sentence.

Leave your whack psychological analysis at home, you have no idea what you are talking about. Feel free to focus on the actual topic instead.

37

I believe I only used this for the seed, where you had this theory that it is in some way dependent on the char which is factually wrong.

The every third drop is the same item I considered an exaggeration and you focusing on the times it does happen vs the ones it is not (confirmation bias).

Not once did I say ‘you do not understand’ here I believe. Maybe this is a generalization of what I actually said. In any case when I say something like that I do not mean ‘you are too stupid to understand’ but ‘you are missing the fact that’

There is no level of smart assery or arrogance in your comments that can’t often be found in mine as well, i take no offense directly to that. We have beaten this one to death though.:wink:

I am cool with that

I will, i am going to document. Not video, if it must be hours and hours of video you are really saying there is no evidence you will accept. But ill show you what i am saying. I am just as interested in proving it to myself, to see whether it really is in my head or not. What is a fair test? Grind Ikon/Plains/Necropolis/. I would say 50 times but as strongly as I think the pattern is I think it would take much less. I think within 10 drops there will be evidence of a non-random anomaly.

10 drops to me is too low a number to prove anything. If I roll a 6 4 times out of the first ten rolls it means nothing. If after 50 drops a third is still the same item, then that is far enough outside the probability to mean something is going on.

I do not really care where you do the run. As you say it happens frequently, I’d do it wherever you did it in the past. That way at least if this is disproven it cannot be blamed on you doing something different from the other times.

Keep track of where you farmed though, so we can then later check if this is due to whatever the mobs in that area equip. From that perspective, please also keep track of which uniques dropped from mobs vs chests and loot orbs.

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Dedicated thread for you RNG lovers. :wink:

39

Dismissing it as some crazy conspiracy, huh? Sounds like something one of the conspirators would say to throw us off the trail. :mad:

40

A+ title. Gave me a pretty good chuckle.

Reminds me of my old Demolitionist threads…