As per title.

Because if not, I just realized that at about 99% of current BPs, I’ll likely never see any of these new random BPs. Theory-crafting sadness.

As per title.

Because if not, I just realized that at about 99% of current BPs, I’ll likely never see any of these new random BPs. Theory-crafting sadness.

This… makes no sense? Having more BPs INCREASES the chance of finding a specific BP, because if you hit one you already have it rerolls, whereas if you don’t have the first one, you’d get it instead (which is, presumably, not the one you’re after).

The number of EXISTING BPs reduces your chance of getting a specific one, yeah, but the more you own, the better your chances.

(at least that’s my understanding of the system, though I admit I haven’t delved deep into it)

exactly. It is like rolling a dice and if have already rolled a specific side, the dice will automatically try to roll again (up to 10 iterations)

So the more BP’s you own, the better the chance is to get a new one that you do not already have learned.

This is only true when you do not own almost all BPs, the chances to get the right one will get smaller again.

Except the dice in this case has 100s of sides. :rolleyes:

Yes, the chances go up a tiny % amount for a random unknown BP. But unlike the normal loot drops you see nothing unless you roll that number. And it will likely take an absurd amount of runs to get an applicable FG BP.

And, I will note that many are not sets - so the new “feature” is useless for those.

Can you do the math for me?

You can do an example in a game with say 100 bp’s and that game tries 10 times for a new bp roll if it has been learned already.

When does bp # 100 have highest and smallest chance to drop. if you own 0 or 99 bp’s already? You can use simulations if you want, but do state which RNG you used.

The chance of actually getting a bp is independent of how many you have learned, right? It is just that the game destroys the bp when it gets on the ground if you already have learned it.

Note: I have phd in theoretical physics, so you can do a pretty technical derivation of the drop chances - I think I can follow it

So who has biggest chance of finding a FG bp? A dude who starts with clean formulas.gst file? or a dude that has 99% of all the previous non-FG bp but 0 FG bp’s? (I know the answer and can get pretty technical about it but I wanna see what you dude can come up with in terms of mathematical and statistical reasoning)

If you have a bag with 100 marbles, then your chance of pulling a specific marble is 1/100.

If you have 200 in the bag, then you have 1/200.

So even with 10 re-rolls, you are now rolling at 1/200 vs 1/100.

As mentioned above getting more blueprints does not negatively affect the chance of getting a specific blueprint. It does however make the blueprint drops from nemesis chests and Rogue-likes go from near certain to once in blue moon (aka the chance of getting a blueprint at all).

As those blueprints contain: Relics (that are often needed craft other relics), vital components(such as unebound Topaz’s, Seal of x, Sacret Plating, Ugdenbog Leather, Living Armor) and Conduit of x Whispers that enable a number niche builds, I would argue that the last few blueprints should be a bit easier to get then they are now.

FG bp’s are around 100 and non-FG bp’s are about 600

If that is the case, then if you know most of the original BP and the BPs are true random

-odds of not dropping a random unknown BP when one is rolled one time is 6/(1+6) ~85%. …increasing with each new BP learned.

If that is rolled multiple times it’s 1- (%)power n, where n is rerolls. So maybe 80% overall for 10 rolls in this example. Which means 8/10 nemesis runs give nothing.

As an example. (yes, some BPs are not random and some may be restricted by difficulty or zone level.)

Chance getting a FG BP if you have not learned any BP previously is 1/7

Chance of getting a FG BP if you have learned all the 600 non-FG BP’s is 1/7 + (6/7)*(1/7) + (6/7)*(6/7)*(1/7) + … > 1/7

(either you drop the FG BP from the first trial, or from the 2nd, or from the 3rd, … )

The dude that already have all the non-FG bp’s will have higher chance dropping a FG BP (if we assume pure random drops, this was a pretty simple model)

The current implementation of BP’s (adaptive RNG) is much better than uniform RNG. But in the end, you need to do many many many runs to push confidence level value of getting all possible BP’s in both models. The adaptive RNG converges to 100% CL faster than the uniform RNG model though.

Because that is actually what is of interest, how confidence level will behave as a function of learned blueprints. I can do an entire thread about that, with graphs and shit for different BP drop-models.

Please nerf drop rates as it is way too high imo, i hoped this game would last some years as d2 did for me, i play this game for only 3 months from which only 2 seriously and i almost have all top tier sets and alot of blueprints, also alot of doubles/triples etc. for FG rerolling…

I feel the same now and then…

In d2 I started Single Player again like 4 years ago, and still I am missing like 8 items (Cham rune, Asterons ward,…) I do have Dweb, Mang song, Zod and Tyraels might though

But dude, there are drop rate mods for Grim Dawn too. Not sure if there is anyone that makes drop rates SMALLER though :rolleyes:

People that bitch about drop rates in GD usually use GDstash anyway :rolleyes:

Having played lots of D2, those high rune drop rates were what ruined it for me. I once found a sur (the most useless yet #28 or something out of 32) and that was it. In well over a thousand hours I would guess. I prefer GD rates, let’s just say that.

Then you must have done something wrong.

You will crap your pants

Which patch did you play?

I don’t stash and I don’t trade as a personal choice. But the BP design is pretty questionable to me.

I don’t mind generally making due with what drops. But I’m starting to question the FG hype based on new FG loot for changes.

Imho, this game is built ~80% around items, and maybe I just see it a different way from other players.

Uh… one a decade or more ago? I’ve got to admit the history of D2 patches has escaped me after all this time

Can you check my math?

Do you want me to make those CL graphs for different BP drop models? (Uniform RNG, adaptive RNG with x number of rerolls? I can have x = 10, 20, 50 if you want)

What model do you want instead? Uniform RNG? That means you will drop many more duplicate BPs instead of rerolling for a BP that you have not learned yet. Do you want Guaranteed drop?

Rune Drop rates were buffed in 1.13b patch. Was released like 2010?

See table here https://s33.postimg.cc/ocpnqdr73/runes.png

I don’t think the rerolls are adaptive, actually. I suspect they are each independent. Are you certain?