CL(at least one) = 100*(1-e^(-x/50))
and you want 99% CL, that is 230 runs (log_e(100) * 50)
Well if it was 23 I’d go for it, but 230 feels like going through hell. Wait, Bastion of Chaos effectively is hell… Uh… Fuck this place anyway.
And other players want something that is a bit more “rare” so that their “effort” pays off.
23 runs is like 37% CL 
so if you do 23 runs, its like flipping a coin that has … 3 sides
Like double Decree of Malmouth:p
But recently am farming SoT and drop rate is through the roof.Last time just Alky chests contained 3 purple set items and he drops Soulrend of course.Also the route to him reward me with 2 purples and couple of useful blues.
The distrubution of number of Soulrends players will get before they drop their first purple Alkamos ring.
We see that almost 30% (29.2%) will get no Soulrend before they drop their first purple Alkamos ring. This is also the most likely outcome.
Is the fg droprate boost that big? I only got on average 1-2 purples from SoT, and mostly from the common pool.
Btw, a solution would be beefing up the blue rings to be good enough as build enablers, same conversion/resist/etc., but slightly slower at killing.
Could you provide a breakdown/comparison about the current sets and their pros and cons are?
Personally I sometimes prefer the blue sets over the purple sets
The blue alkamos rings over the purple ones? Those are what I meant.
I re-read it. Comparison impending.
There was a time where I was running SoT several times a day for weeks, but I’ve given up a long time ago since I realized that I don’t even need those rings for any of my builds, I was only driven by pure greed
On the other hand, I got Decree of Aldritch after maybe two dozen PV runs :rolleyes: I wasn’t even looking for that item but one of my spellbinders found it to be very useful 
As Nery mentioned the leg drop rate is much higher than before FG, so I might do a few SoT runs here and there again, haven’t done it in a while. And if I finally find the other ring (already got 1 from previous runs) I’ll try to build around them so they don’t go to waste.
Nice graph on the last page. I wonder what the distribution looks like if the condition is that you have to find both rings instead of any one ring. Wonder if the number of soulrend drops is in the same range as mine, which was about 10 I think. Not sure as I’ve stopped storing them, seems kind of pointless now.
It looks like this
About 50% (44%) of players will get 0, 1 or 2 Soulrends before they complete the Purple Ring set.
Guess I’m in the ~98th percentile of being unlucky, an achievement at least 
Nah, 6.5% will get 10 or more Soulrends before they get purple ring set so its not that crazy 
I finally got one of the rings - touch of anguish, and before i got soulrend! what are the chances of that?
graph in this post shows probability distribution over number of soulrends before first purple ring.
https://www.grimdawn.com/forums/showpost.php?p=750989&postcount=26
and in the graph of this post, the probability distribution over number of soulrends before completing the purple ring set (i.e. at least one of each)
https://www.grimdawn.com/forums/showpost.php?p=751418&postcount=33