I'm starting to think drops are not pure RNG

Since I can’t do dungeons reliable yet, I’m starting to think there are drops that only drop when you do the hardest content in the game, which is crucible, SR and dungeons.

I’m farming ultimate Twin Falls, and other areas, and I get the same drops over and over. Venom boots, Oath something, sharpshooter set, etc, etc, etc.

Never saw any Light Defender, or Mordrogen, or any “meta” set that normally people use in their builds.

So… does that mean that until I can takle the hardest content, I’m out of luck?.

Feels like a catch 22.

In terms of what you get, yes, some legendaries are rarer than others. In terms of where they drop, it doesn’t matter. For example, I did a whole bunch of SR and crucible and never saw a cyclone effigy or pyran effigy until they just dropped while I was casually farming in the main campaign.

Drops are definitely not pure RNG. Far too many times i had multiple duplicates of an item from the same Crucible loot and even from the same chest. Also when i finished campaign for the first time i had 4 full Baldir’s set completed and nothing else, literally more Baldir’s pieces than all other blue set pieces combined. Half of them were duplicates of the Stonefather’s Mark. I’m not joking or exaggerating.

But unless a dev sheds some light it’s really hard to tell why it’s so common to see RNG anomalies in GD, whether it’s intended or not.

Anecdotal evidence is anecdotal :).

I’m saying, than in over 100 Twin Falls, Crowley, and other non dungeon areas, I’m getting the same legendaries over and over with very little variance.

But I do remember, than something like a year ago, when I had a crucible capable character, I was seeing rarer drops all over the place.

I think this may have something to do with the algorithm used for rng rather than anything crate has done with percentages. I’ve seen similar cases in other games.

But I could be wrong.

I’m almost convinced at this point that doesn’t matter how many times I kill those little boss wasps, Im never getting a good drop out of them :slight_smile:

Early game, yes, “meta” is not easy to farm. Your chances of getting the same “trash” from the same locations are higher than getting really rare loot. Once you can farm SR or crucible, the situation changes drastically. Which is only logical as these are the ultimate endgame modes. I got all my missing blueprints and set items from high SR.

That, and one player’s experience is nowhere near a large enough sample size, even a player with thousands of hours in the game.


That. I play only campaign for now and have completed two lvl 94 sets so far, and have many other pieces of end game legs. Some dropped in regular campaign, other in rogulikes.
That said, some legendaries are certainly rarer than another, and due to the low drop rate in Twin Falls comparated to endgame areas, you can have the feeling that some gear can’t drop here. But it can.

Both points are invalid in this case.

The core audience of this game spent so many hours in different looters they usually develop the feel for when RNG is skewed. I can’t say for OP or any other player’s experience or issues, but my experience - in games and RNG in general - and my education allow me to say GD has RNG anomalies outside of observer’s error margin.

Sample size indeed matters, you can’t say “this item doesn’t drop in this game” based on your playtime. But for detecting anomalies sample size has little meaning. For instance, if you enter the dungeon and of all the blue items in the drop pool you have one single item dropped 4 times in a row you don’t need 10.000 more runs in this dungeon to say smth is wrong. Because you already have a statistically impossible example.

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Not impossible, just unlikely. And what the OP stated is precisely “some gear doesn’t drop outside end game areas”, which you seem to agree that it’s a false statement.

Just to add as anecdotal evidence, I finally killed Alkamos after kiting him for 5 mins :).

And oh surprise, I had 2 drops that never seen before, a Bysmiel ring and that two hander rifle for pets, forgot the name.

So, yes, anecdotal indeed, but what I’m thinking is, there are loot tablets, and some drops can’t drop from certain content. Or, the chance is highly reduced.

Of course until we have confirmation from Crate, which will probably won happen for obvious and somewhat justified reasons, it’s speculation.

100 runs is anecdotal evidence…

evidence is analysis of the loot tables.

Not really.

THe chances of always seeing the same drops over and over with little variance over 100 runs means that:

1- there are loot tables in this game, meaning, some items will never drop in certain areas.
2- among legendary/epic items, some are way rarer than others.

From my personal and anecdotal experience, it seems like some items will never drop when doing the content I’m doing.

That is what i mean by statistically impossible. I think that statement was more of the frustration. My eye caught the phrase “same drops over and over” which is exactly what i experienced with blue items during the first playthrough. Can’t say the same about legendaries though, their distribution felt normal.

Depends on what you are judging. If during these 100 runs you got many duplicates of several items and very little variance otherwise, you are right to imply RNG is skewed.

There is a bulk of items called MI which you can only get from certain mobs or Crucible/SR, in case you didn’t know.

Which reasons are those exactly? They have nothing to hide and little reason to regardless. There is nothing to be gained from hiding any such thing - nevermind the fact modders have full access to loot tables and the weighting therein.

While they might not be able to directly pore over the RNG algorithms directly they have full access to tweak such values to their liking.

If modders have full access to loot tables, doesn’t that mean that “the truth is out there”?.

Its been out there since the mod tools were released to the public shortly after official launch in mid-2016. We have access to the same tools Crate used to make the game. Knock yerself out.

The RNG algorithm is literally:

Add weights together, assign intervals for each drop, roll 1 to Σ, and pick the result. If result is another table, then repeat the process. If result is an item, do an item drop with the specified item, or else do nothing.

This is why the reroll-duplicates hack doesn’t always work, and I get like two chains of anguish in one session.