I'm starting to think drops are not pure RNG

I can see how that could be understood that way. I most likely had the gear to do gladiator (with a different build than the one that first did it) way before but didn’t care enough or understood enough to try.

not all items have the same probability, so it isn’t a straight 3/86 chance. The level of the area you are in and of the mobs matters as well when it comes to drops, so having 86 items with a level >= 82 is meaningless without a breakdown to levels and an idea of what level items should have been dropping.

So I still go with this being too little data to determine anything and too small a sample size to conclude anything. Now if you had 1000 drops and 50% were one item or one out of 3, then we can talk, but 40 is essentially nothing.

I should’ve probably left it as it was… For the record i reached 94 from like 75 very fast through low SR runs to end the campaign comfortably with 94lvl gear. Also i played once through the whole campaign (rushed through elite) and only grinded in Crucible. But partly you are right, i had several hours between 82 and 94 where i probably got 5-7 blue set items.

Even if the drop chances somewhat differ, it cannot explain the magnitude of the RNG spike. In case you are still interested, the chance of getting 20 out of 40 items from the pool of 3 out of 87 is

1 to 1283997338679665080

I go with you are trying to defend smth for some reason, and i’m not interested in such a discussion. And you are probably tired of answering to me as well.

fine (possibly, did not verify that math), but meaningless. RNG also drops yellows, greens, etc. It determines damage numbers and so forth. So you did NOT have 40 rolls of which 20 were these 3 items. You had maybe a million rolls of which 20 resulted in these 20 items and another 20 resulted in another 20 epic items.

That is correct, the game has many ways of applying RNG and accumulates many such sequencies. However no one pays attention to (or even capable of recording) the majority of them. This is the game heavily based around loot. Blue items are important for leveling. This is what matters and what players pay attention to. I’m not sure why i have to articulate this. Talking about magic rolls and dmg is just derailing from the point. We may as well talk about our bad luck IRL. I get the message.

A post was merged into an existing topic: Blueprint Rerolling

which is why your calculation of the odds is not accurate

you did not have to articulate that, but that has no bearance on whether the RNG is flawed or not

no it is not, it is pointing out that determining whether the RNG has an issue or not is a lot more difficult than simply saying ‘I got a lot of the same epic items over a few runs’ (and yes, 100 is a few for this…)

I had a while where I got a lot of one type of pants, now they rarely drop and I get some other few items more frequently. That just means it averages out in the long run, as is expected from an RNG. An RNG does not mean you get everything about equally often all the time, only that it averages out over the long run.

My calculation is accurate because the sample is complete, it’s not cutting out any drops for the sake of proving the point.
It has bearance to the clarity of drop RNG because again, the sample is complete, it is easy to record.
If i only had this one example in mind i would be more prone to assume it’s just an example of an amazing RNG spike. But there were other examples with blue items. This one was just the most ridiculous.

It all boils down to the phrase in the very first post: “i get the same drops over and over”. I played several looters with much bigger communities. People usually complain about poor drops but only here i’ve seen this complaint - about the same drops - several times in such a short period of time. And i have somewhat same experience recorded.

I can’t believe after all i’ve said and the math i did you try to school me about RNG like a 6 yo.

Man, i thought i’ve passed the age where you argue with someone on the internet about meaningless stuff… But some things still get me triggered.

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yes it does, you even agreed that it did, as you only count the epics when the same RNG rolled tons of other items in between (and is also used for other rolls than item drops).

So this is not 40 consecutive rolls out of which 20 were made up of 3 items, as you now claim again

No one is arguing against there sometimes being a spike in one or two items dropping, but you have to show that this is a bug in the RNG / loottables, not just normal behavior of an RNG which is expected to have spikes if it truly is random.

I totally see your pain. I’ve salvaged and discarded a LOT of baldir set items, almost to the point of thinking they drop on purpose to haunt me. But the same is true for many other blues. I do feel that some blues have a much higher chance to drop than others. Is it just RNG or another secret plot of Zantai? All we have is our personal subjective experience. Which is not much to go by. I have clocked 5k hours in GD and can confirm that some blues drop 10 times more often for me than the others. Does this mean there’s a global conspiracy? I dunno. Personally, it would only be logical to expect different drop chances for different items, even within the same group.

And again. If you really want to farm those rares fast, SR is your best bet. Let me know if you need a hand and I can help you speedrun those and even get you all my drops as I have 99.99% of them now.

This became a little of a mess I see, sorry, not my intention.

What I’m trying to get at is, does the “item quality”, AKA, rarer legendary items, increase when doing harder content?

To be more precise, I killed Moo nemesis once afer 15 mins of kiting, and I got 2 legendary drops that I never seen before dropped while doing my campaign runs.

I’m not saying the items can’t drop, or that the loot tables are different, but there seems to be some logic regarding how difficult is to kill the “thing” vs how rare is the reward I’m getting from killing the thing.

Which is not a bad design nor I’m complaining about it.

I just want to know if that’s the case so I can maybe instead of running over and over the same easier content, have a challenge and try to kill a nemesis or do a dungeon.

That’s all.

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Yep, I’d like to know that too.

@Artemix: It’s all in the looting/levelling guide I linked you above.

That should help tremendously. Feel free to ask away if you have more questions.

EDIT: Don’t apologize for anything.

No, there is no difference, unless you are talking about the difference between level 65 legendary vs. level 94 legendary, and that depends on the character level and monster level. The moose different drop is simply “anectodal evidence”.

You said earlier that there is more variance in the crucible. Well here is what might be happening. When you farm the main campaign, I assume you are starting from a fresh load. The game ensures you do not get repeat drops of legendaries PER SESSION. So when you do the crucible and stay within it, you will get more variance, because you do not get a repeated drop by not restarting. If you do a wasp/cronley, etc. run and then start over, you will get more of the same drop because you have restarted some number of times. But if you farm the whole campaign map per session you will not get a repeated drop per session.

Absolutely agree. Knowing the game it’s really doable. I’m rolling classless untwinked HC now to walk the path of perseverance. Removed all my saves / stash for the sake of better engagement. By level 35 was oneshotting everything. And that’s classless. But hey, not everyone is a GD veteran like you.

^I wish to add to this.

In essence, there are 2 things the efficient looter must balance - (i) clear rate, (ii) Loot quality

While clearing the whole of cairn of enemies might result in extremely varied loot, it might also take freaking hours.

On the other hand, doing cronley runs over and ocer again may result in you getting very “repetitive” drops.

So what you want to do, ideally, is to find a farming route which will give you quality items, and which you can clear quickly.

This is where dungeon runs, SR, and cruci comes in.

That’s a very good point, I didn’t think of that. Makes sense.

The probability of getting a unique item increases with challenge, so you are more likely to get a Unique item running Steps of Torment than running a wasp hive, and when you do get a unique drop it’s more likely to be a Legendary than an Epic in more challenging content.

That said, once the game decides that a Unique item is dropping, the pool that is drawn upon is exactly the same regardless of where it’s dropping. Which is to say once a unique drop occurs, your chance of it being item X is the same in the Crucible or from a random zombie fodder mob.

Now Monster Infrequents and Monster-Specific uniques are an exception, but those are entirely independent loot tables.

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So you are saying, content doesn’t affect drop quality?, are all legendaries created equal? :).

The “bonus” values on items have set “ranges” they can roll/drop within. In GrimTools Item Database you can select the “Settings” icon on the left hand side and then select ‘Item attributes’>‘Show min/max values’ to SEE that range on items. By default GrimTools always shows the ‘average values’.

With that said a Level 75 Stormreaver is a Level 75 Stormreaver and a Level 94 Mythical Stormreaver is a Level 94 Mythical Stormreaver.


Average Values                                      Min/Max Ranges